Now to something far more useful.

Learning by guessing. This is how the mind seems to work and is *also* used as a ‘trick’ by salesmen and politicians (or salesmen politicians) and news people in order to convince you by leaving just enough vagueness to allow you to feel that you’ve finished the puzzle they present, which you have, but used uncritically (that is, if you 100% trust them), can mislead you in whatever direction you agree to go with them in.

Used in Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP) a well. [some people call it hypnosis but you could simply call it the power of “if”]

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Mathematics and plausible reasoning

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“probably can’t”
“won’t”

What’s true in your above statement?

“You are making another statement.”

The rest? Plausible reasoning that’s poorly formed.

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I downloaded a copy and am reading it now. It’s all quite familiar territory, likely because the flaws in inductive reasoning – and it’s power – have been a lifelong of fascination for me from a psychological point of view. It’s good to see it presented in this manner.

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This book is “math-y” [of course] but the little thought experiments in it and explanations are worthy. [I just roll past the math that I don’t care about 🙂 ] It’s enjoyable. There’s a 2nd book that I’m more interested in that follows this that apparently broadens these ideas to generalizations but I figured I should be a good boy and start here first]

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