50% is actually good odds in some circumstances and there are ways to mitigate risk. For example: You have money to invest. You break into two categories: Low risk | High risk. Money you can afford to lose goes into high risk. Money you can afford to lose goes into low risk. You can split low risk / high risk at the 50% line if you like. Notice I didn’t say “Money you cannot afford to lose”. Money you cannot afford to lose you do not invest.

50% is actually good … [read full article]


Trump made the same choice made by a bunch of past Presidents. It’s a choice he said shouldn’t be made and that only his opponent would make. Well, he’s made it. Now I’m just hoping that the phony cold war game plays out (again) without too many people actually dying in the process. Or, at best, this was a one-off event and the rest is just posturing.

Trump made the same [read full article]


Well, I’ve seen all level of devotion. Basic civic nationalism, which I’m fine with. It’s normal. Then people who believe his promises, which to me starts getting odd. Then God Emperor Trump level which is “personality cult” / North Korea level Kool Aid stuff, and finally Fulfillment of Biblical Prophesy / Bringing of End Times, Restoration of Jerusalem, war-leading to peace, stuff. That’s my measuring stick of devotion, first time I actually wrote it out.

Well, I’ve seen all [read full article]