Not all economists are good at forecasting. Most are always wrong.

I’ve seen the same types of predictions coming out of the USA in those expensive investing prognosticators.

Big predictions come out at the beginning of the year. Firms offer their investment strategies for the upcoming year.

You need to look at their past year-start predictive abilities and check their accuracy. Not all economists are good at forecasting. Most are always wrong.


The investment community is still very primitive in its emotional intelligence.

Basic psychology didn’t even BEGIN to enter the calculations until I t*think* the mid 1990s or so and even then, it was more “animal” than human. Adam Smith’s rational man still lives on, , a useful fiction but with the same old limitations.


I studied investing heavily from around 1999-2002 and got really into it. Found my style, used it (DRIP – long term [theoretically]) and did well right through the ups and downs. I made my choices, drew from it, did well.

My style was contrary. (contrarian? I think that’s the name) they give for it. Look at all of the advice, _even_ the contrarian advice, and go opposite. Find the strong companies that will survive the to-and-fro in the longer term.

But mostly index investing. Had I no other advice, stick to indexes and don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.



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