My rule of thumb is: Nearly every prediction of the future (that isn’t making blindingly obvious predictions) is wrong. Doom and gloom is always 15-50 years away usually within the predictor’s lifetime – rarely after they’re gone. The short term predictions are even worse than the longer term ones. The 5 year predictors are particularly awful. very very rare to find someone who’s good. I did find one but he studied economies over centuries.

My rule of thumb is: Nearly every prediction of the future (that isn’t making blindingly obvious predictions) is wrong. Doom and gloom is always 15-50 years away usually within the predictor’s lifetime – rarely after they’re gone. The short term predictions are even worse than the longer term ones. The 5 year predictors are particularly awful.
very very rare to find someone who’s good. I did find one but he studied economies over centuries.

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