I have a heuristic/rule of thumb: If someone predicts the future and says, “In 10-15 years…” or “within 20-25 years”, I look at their age. Ok, they’ll live to see it. Hence the reason why the data manages to fit their lifespan.
Most predictions of the future don’t happen. That much is statistically true. No matter who makes the prediction. [that’s if you believe statistics; for me, it depends on the data sources and the reasoning behind the study]
So, I’m skeptical about “near future” predictions. I’m also skeptical of predictions where “doom and gloom” just *happen* to take place at a point in the future where WE STILL HAVE TIME TO FIX IT.
It’s a form of plausible hyperbole. Nothing wrong with it in the grand scheme of things I suppose; it accomplishes a lot – gets people moving. But… still founded on untruth and hyperbole.