I’m usually down on Bayesian as I find the notion of mixing belief and measurements a little odd, but here it ‘clicks’ a bit. [related to discussion of luck/chance etc] What I’d been calling anxiety MIGHT well be one of the OCDs as this speaks to me: “Obsessive compulsive (OC) symptoms involve excessive information gathering (e.g., checking, reassurance-seeking), and uncertainty about possible, often catastrophic, future events. Here we propose that these phenomena are the result of excessive uncertainty regarding state transitions (transition uncertainty): a computational impairment in Bayesian inference leading to a reduced ability to use the past to predict the present and future, and to oversensitivity to feedback (i.e. prediction errors).”

I’m usually down on Bayesian as I find the notion of mixing belief and measurements a little odd, but here it ‘clicks’ a bit. [related to discussion of luck/chance etc]

What I’d been calling anxiety MIGHT well be one of the OCDs as this speaks to me:

“Obsessive compulsive (OC) symptoms involve excessive information gathering (e.g., checking, reassurance-seeking), and uncertainty about possible, often catastrophic, future events. Here we propose that these phenomena are the result of excessive uncertainty regarding state transitions (transition uncertainty): a computational impairment in Bayesian inference leading to a reduced ability to use the past to predict the present and future, and to oversensitivity to feedback (i.e. prediction errors).”

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