I’m surprised K went as far as he has with this. I remember when he seemed a bit looney back in the early 90s on Usenet, even among the cybernetics newsgroups. Dude made keyboards, a step beyond a typical bass guitarist with his futurist world thoughts and groupies.
But, good for him, he did good and got somewhere. Does something with a tech company I think and wrote a few books, started a kind of modern religion. I’m impressed.
My thoughts? K. is a little too specific in his optimism, projecting prophecies 10-30 yrs down the road which is common for prophets to do.
Musk is too negative but I think he’s more concerned with “wrong hands” than the technology itself..
We’re “in” global brain _now_ and can’t see it.
Look, I like the guy and I’m glad he’s in a position to give talks and write fun books that inspire people to believe in a tech Utopia. I, too, want to believe.
But use your head man. We barely understand the neurocomplexity of a slug and “computer neurons” (based on erroneous 1940s ideas) are not equivalent to biological neurons.
What we’re doing and have in store is AMAZING — but — you have to separate science from marketing / inspiration.
What you don’t understand about me Naveed: I WANT to be wrong.
But that is why I proceed cautiously with my hopes.
Most predictions by most people are wrong, when analyzed properly, and many correct predictions are, in the end, ,no brainer obvious. (like the growth of the internet)
I was wrong about cochlear implants: They took off and worked.
I was right about VR: It took 27 years to FINALLY become viable from the time I first experienced it myself and believe me, EVERY TIME a new announcement about VR came out, I was hopeful *and* skeptical.
I watched AI *DIE* in the 90s. Robots *DIED*. I’m a connectionist – do you know how crushing it was to watch parallel computing become a dirty word and Artificial Intelligence a joke to even bring up?
Then I watched it all come back.
I learned caution. I’m cautiously optimistic, which makes me come off as a pessimist.
I dunked a lot of my hopes into Google. “Do no Evil”. But I noticed them start doing evil around 2004 and by 2011, they became just another tech corp.
arguing by authority, which I did too by giving my anecdote.
Faster computing and mere complexity does not equal intelligence. *i wish it did*. If it does, the telephone network became conscious 80 yrs ago and the internet 20 yrs ago.
And maybe it did.
I’m saying you’re wrong about calling yourself a skeptic based on that.
There’s different ways to be skeptical and yes, I’m being skeptical of your skepticism in this instance. I’m applying my bias.
In my rulebook of “how to skeptic”, when doubt is raised, follow that doubt as if the doubt may be true.
It’s an attitude. Doubt is fascinating, intriguing and worth pursuing.
Often, I am skeptical of another’s skepticism and will pursue plugging up the holes in the other skeptic.
Hero worship is a particular thing I tend to focus a lot of my skepticism upon. I look at style. Is what I’m reading look like promotional materials? Am I looking at marketing?
I give a hard time to Kurzweiling because for me, it’s testing the ship for seaworthiness.
“Look at the projections! This ship won’t sink!”
I’ve got my ticket and I’m ready to board.
Elon Musk-ing or Hawking-ing AI isn’t even much on my radar: my eyes are on that ship and where it’s going to take me.
But it’s got to be seaworthy and unbridled optimism can lead to multiple casualties.
We need the Musks out there, ringing the sky is falling bell, talking about dragons in the waters. I know there’s no dragons in the waters of AI, but there MIGHT be a Mutiny.. and THAT means looking at people.
“BITCOIN can’t fail. Look at the projections!”
“Stock market CAN’T drop – it’s doing great!”
“This bridge is FINE”
Build the bridge.
Invest in Bitcoin and Stocks.
Be enthusiastic for AI’s future.
But poke at it, prod it, cautious optimism.
If you understand nothing else about my worldviews but you understand this? 90% of what I say and why I say it will make sense to you, even if you continue to disagree.
Exactly. It’s good engineering principals. You plan for your goals while also engineering a robustness into the systems so it can withstand the unexpected.
Hyperbole. It sells. Drives me nuts most of the time but if that was my career, I’d have to do it too.
Sometimes extreme optimism is good in motivational / inspirational stuff. If it gets you off your butt to get moving, it’s great!
But once in the thick of things, the high of enthusiasm gets replaced with the nitty gritty details and it’s hard but doable.
A big yes to the unrelated thoughts as well. Those are great because it gives me new directions to explore.
I don’t know who Kevin Kelly is. I actually haven’t read anything by Kurzweil, only 2nd hand accounts from both sides.
But no, you don’t fully understand why I give *you* a hard time about it.
I’ve seen too many metaphorical lemmings gleefully jump into the ocean over ideas and end up crushed or become bitter.
You’re too damned smart for that and yet, that’s what I see.
Maybe it’s just how you debate/discuss online, Maybe it’s a perceptual flaw on my part and it’s merely a technique you’ve habituated in online forums.