going into a situation, we take what we know and what we see and what we believe and come up with what we think are plausible near future outcomes.
within this calculation is errors.
there are many variables you can set to change how these bayesian predictions work.
it’s mechanistic and like all machines you can change the settings.
what percentage of belief or trust do you have in your past knowledge about similar situations to Bear upon the near future?
when you get feedback, how much do you believe the feedback and hoe much do you believe what you already believed?
it works something like that.