Here’s the thing:
REGARDLESS of what’s done or not done, someone with gender dysphoria is ALREADY more suicidal prone.
That is the most important fact of all of this. They START on a bad foot.
To say “treatment makes it worse” implies “doing nothing makes it better” but they’re ALREADY more suicidal either way.
So you _can’t_ compare to transition vs non transition to CIS peers because the difference in suicidal rates is ALREADY THERE.
In short, +at no point+ do CIS and gender dysphoric start on the same footing.
It’s unlikely they’ll ever GET on the same footing.
The point of gender affirmation therapies is to give them a CHANCE to get on a better footing than their OTHER gender dysphoric peers.
Reaching the levels of CIS peers is a hope but not an assumption or possibly not even reasonable.