Easy. It’s my turn to be a temporarily organized state of entropy. [well, actually a step in disorganization that we *call* anti-entropy if one takes a long-view) but in any case, my turn.

Easy. It’s my turn to be a temporarily organized state of entropy. [well, actually a step in disorganization that we *call* anti-entropy if one takes a long-view) but in any case, my turn.

As long as I have the choice and it’s not chosen for me I’m ok. I’m speaking more generally of other people’s right to chose their direction rather than what I chose for myself.

I think the idea of ‘inevitability’ is an illusion based upon looking back and seeing that “the course of events could not have possibly happened in any other way”.

In short, an illusion of certainty. The same certainty *doesn’t* apply to future events, only past events.

So to me, to attempt to apply this fixed-ness certainty of the past and flip it around and say, “This also applies to the future” is delusional because past <> future. Past is only fixed in retrospect. The future is not fixed until after it’s passed.

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Think about how we view the future. How do we predict things?

We predict things by looking backwards at the past, analyzing the past then we flip the past over to the future, using “now” as the pivot point and say, “The future will be like the past was”.

Sometimes this works. We can take our view of the past from a physics standpoint, flip it over the “now” so that it extends forward into the future instead of backwards into the past and it’s quite likely that the rules that once applied when looking backwards will *also* apply looking forwards.

Yet it doesn’t work with everything or even most things.

Economics Let’s look at the economics A “wealth” of histories, all very well documented, tracked, analyzed, understood.

Now let’s take what we learned from the past of economics, flip it over the present moment and extend the same rules it into the future going forward instead of the past going backwards.

Does it work in the flipped state?

IS the past a good substitute for the future?

In economics, only in certain cases and even then, only in a broad sense and in some local systems.

For example, so long as political relations stay more or less the same as they have been for decades, I can look at a blue chip stock, understand its behavior in relation to the rest of the market and get a general sense that there will be a recovery to a drop, or that a growth is unsustainable in the long term and will correct itself dramatically.

But can I say when? Can I apply all of the rules of the past to achieve an accurate and precise prediction of future economic events?

I cannot because it’s also a self-aware system whose parameters change upon viewing.

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