Don’t be impressed by the big numbers. He’s leveraging debt.

That’s 1994. How much of that three billion went to pay his debts? What was he left with after paying back the debt? How much of his debt *did* he pay back so he could get more loans?

Don’t be impressed by the big numbers. He’s leveraging debt.

====

Only if he did nothing since then. You can float a LOT of projects on debt and empty promises in the hopes that they’ll pay you back enough to be able to repay what you owe at least in part.

It’s more likely he’s 10 billion in DEBT than 10 billion in net worth.

===

Oh dude, man you’re bringing me back. I had investments in REIT back in the early/mid 00s when I was investing.

I saw the signs in ’07 and pulled everything out of my REITs JUST before the commercial real estate market CRASHED in 2008 along with everything else.

===

REITs sank to crap. We saw the results first hand here in Naples. Now things are growing again but it took a few years to recouperate. It was a long few years.

===

No idea. I pulled out the last of my stocks in 2014 after enjoying them for 12 strong years as a source of income ’til I picked away at the principle and ran that to $0.

Since 2014, I’ve pretty much forgotten everything I knew about investing. Maybe you’re right. But there’s no greater liars than hedge fund managers and people working in real estate.

===

Real estate investments depend on loans from banks. To get loans from banks, you have to have a strong “image” of wealth that you’d be able to pay it back somehow.

Playing games with the numbers is very easy. It’s not just real estate of course, but many businesses, some more than others.

This is especially true with the publically traded companies. They HAVE TO LIE. If they don’t show evidence of “growth”, investors drop them. Thing is, businesses CAN’T always be on pathways of sustainable growth once they’ve reached a level of stabilities.

– oh and I didn’t mean to indicate that real estate brokers are con artists. Not at all. I’m mostly speaking about large scale commercial real estate, not even talking about basic shopping malls and such.

And, home real estate brokers are generally good people.

===

=

My point is, Trump has every reason to lie and no reason to be honest. His image of wealth sustains his credit. We’ll never find out for sure.

===

Ok, this seems more accurate:

“In 2015, Trump earned $71 million from condo sales and collects $41.9 million in rental income on his buildings annually”

I don’t know if that includes what he has to pay back to the banks or what’s left over after he pays his mortgages, but either way, this is a more reasonable set of numbers.

===

But see, it’s tricky here. It all depends how you count things.

For example, even though you *should* count real estate holdings as liabilities, you *can* colloquially speak of them as assets and add them up, entirely ignoring multiple layers of mortgages on the properties. But not just colloquially.

I was hit by this in 1990 in my college. The reason I never finished college is because we ran out of money.

How did we run out of money?

At the time, a holdover from the Reagan administration, owning a home was counted as an ASSET rather than a LIABILITY.

This meant my student loans were MUCH MUCH smaller than they should’ve been.

So, after 1.5 yrs, I had to leave. It didn’t help that I picked the most expensive school in the country at the time. [Hampshire College]

So, If you took your real estate holdings, ignored the loans, counted them up as assets, you end up with inflated numbers.

====

he’s not going to lose any revenue from this campaign. Win or lose, he gains. The branding of “Trump” gained by this campaign *is* likely worth many many millions of dollars in increase than if he hadn’t done it.

====

He gained a HUGE loyal following that would jump off a cliff if he told them to. Financial hits felt by pissing people off? $0.00

===

[also that’s incorrect: I said “owning a home” – we didn’t own it. It was bank owned. [mortgages]. See, even the common language “owning a home” is misleading.

Trump doesn’t own those properties. The banks do.

====

Doesn’t matter. Look at the new market he created for his products and services? They weren’t his market before. Now they are.

===

He’ll get the lawyers to do the work, stiff them out of their fees, hire OTHER lawyers when those lawyers try to sue him, and stiff them too. Why do you think he goes through lawyers like water?

===

I’m sure they are. But his name is KNOWN throughout the planet now, except maybe China. The people in China didn’t seem to know who he (or Clinton) was.

There’s a rule in show biz: “Good publicity or bad publicity – it’s all publicity”. It’s the truth.

And I grew up in New Jersey. I KNEW people in my hometown (roselle park) who were STIFFED by Trump from the Taj Mahal. They couldn’t afford to sue. They just ate it, shut down their companies, paying their workers what they could.

You can defend him all you like, but he was just a scumball slumlord general contractor when I was growing up who talked like the used car commercial guys. Growing up in NJ, these people are easy to spot a mile away.

They find suckers and find them easily. It’s what they’re good at.

===

I don’t know what stories people are saying now. I just know the stories I remember growing up. I grew up in a blue collar down. I knew these people.

And the lawyers? That was almost a joke through the 90s, how he’d go through lawyers to sue other lawyers that sued him. It’s just what he does.

===

any fool who does business with Trump deserves what they get. That includes the American people. If we elect him, we get the Lame Duck President we deserve.

===

I’m not even saying I’d never possibly vote for him. I don’t decide fully ’til I close the curtain behind me.

I just know a con when I see it. Not a conspiracy, just a con.

===

Ok, look:
I grew up near him. I knew people who got stiffed by him personally. The impression people had of him was not favorable. The ONLY thing going for him was “Art of the Deal” which sounded *nothing* like his public persona, which is just what you see today, although he was less feisty old man back then.

When his ghostwriter said “There is no private Trump”, it clicked into place, how the “Art of the Deal” didn’t seem like him. [I read through it back then – a kid in high school, hoping for some business insight, which I didn’t really get from there] – and so from my personal POV, it was logical.

Are my impressions illegitimate? Am I calling him Hitler? Giving him super powers? No.

===

You’re all over the place. I’m sorry OTHER PEOPLE are saying those things about him and that it bothers you.

I’m saying: He’s a con man who doesn’t pay people properly. I know this about him. I know he’s inflating his net worth. Sometimes he shrinks it depending on how he’s feeling that day. I know this.

===

Did you hear what you said?

“I and most people who are able to remain objective about him are wise to doubt every negative complaint about him by default.”

That’s not being objective.

==

You’re fighting phantoms that aren’t in the room right now. It’s you and me.

===

Let me know when you’re ready to talk to me and not to these other people that aren’t here.

===

I’m an independent. I’m still willing to give Trump a shot but he has to do a few things – a number of them, for me to consider him.

===

My experiences are far closer than yours. Did you know who he was before he started running?

===

I’m sorry you know people who have no standards.

===

Well, you’ve judged all NJ contractors because some of them said they didn’t get paid by Trump and a couple of them were used by the Democratic party in order to bolster a negative image of Trump which you disagree with.

====

Quality contractors *is* hard work. I run a business and I’m technically a “tenant landlord” and it’s a pain in the ass ’cause I’m responsible for what happens here. (the mortgage is mine – it’s my house)

There’s Gypsy contractors in NJ that aren’t that great. They’re in every state. The town I grew up in was 1 square mile, 1/2 Irish and 1/2 Italian. [I’m neither]. Tiny little suburban town.

Now, in my business, we’ve had customers stiff us out of payment. Out of thousands of customers, how many did?

1. And they failed. They launched a complaint against us, which caused Amex to pull out money out. I responded to the complaint immediately to Amex and we got our money back. So, they failed at stiffing us.

Hers was one out of three complaints. Her’s was illegitimate. Two were legitimate and we refunded them their money over a period of a few months. [cash flow].

Now, we’re not in the contracting business, although we *do* some minor repairs. [well I don’t, I run the business. My brother and others do the work].

I’m from NJ. He’s from NJ. Your image of NJ is false and based on media stereotypes.

===

More work than it’s worth? It’s easy. Just don’t pay. Most people grumble and can be ignored. The few that get the balls to sue, you threaten to sue them back harder. They back down. It’s not hard if you got a few lawyers on your back.

Look. You got 10 hypothetical contractors in a town that see a bid for a job.

If 8 of them get stiffed and say, “Dude, it’s a trap” to the other two.

You know what the other two do?

“Fuck you, you just did shitty work. I’m bidding”.

===

Did Trump use in-house contractors? It’s unlikely. You 1099 your contractors – who wants to pay unemployment and shit?

You want to believe what you want to believe and that’s fine. You believe what he says and defend him.

I know what I know. You can believe what you want to believe.

===

Depends on how the bidding is worded.

Example: “You supply the materials and the labor and we’ll pay you [x]” [to the lowest bidder].

They supply the materials. They do the labor.

They get paid 1/4 or 1/3rd. Doesn’t even cover cost of materials.

They’re fucked. Can you get rich off that? Sure.

===

You pay SOME, keep the rest that you were supposed to pay. You use that free money to do more stuff.

You have to think in partials, not wholes.

Let’s say, for every $100 you’re supposed to pay, you pay only $30. You use the $70 of free money to do more stuff.

You’re aware of the law of compounding? It really is magical once you get started.

====

He wasn’t paying 90% of agreed. He paying FAR less than that.

Example: Many companies do business this way:

“1/3 up front, 1/3 in the middle, 1/3 upon completion”.

So, let’s say you’re a crappy gen contractor who hires subcontractors and defrauding is a way of business. .

You pay the 1/3 up front. The work gets started. The subcontractor eats the costs of materials and labor, promising his workers “they’ll get paid soon”.

Project’s half done. But instead of paying the middle 1/3rd, you have reasons why you can’t do it just yet, but we’re under a tight deadline and could you just finish this up ’cause really, there’s more guys coming in and you’re holding them up.

Gets close to the end of the project. You demand your 2nd third. You get it. Satisfied, you can pay some of your workers and you finish up the job.

Then comes the final payment.

You never get it.

Now that can also happen in 1/2 and 1/2 agreements and other formulations of payment.

There’s also Terms. 15 day net, 30 day net, 90 day net, etc.

So many ways to stiff people on terms. I’m ethical and i don’t do it. But I know how.

===

Everything thinks they’re special and too smart to get taken. Even you.

Even me.

===

I’m not claiming his entire business was build upon screwing subcontracts. There’s lots of more legal ways to screw other people and companies as well. It’s “just doing business”.

====

The business goes under. New ones pop up. How many buildings did he make, Michael?

How many projects did he do? Not a whole lot. They’re just big ones.

====

Also, did he screw them over directly? Not necessarily.

You hire a guy who hires other guys who hires other guys who hires other guys ’til you get to the level of the guy actually hammering the nails.

Trickle down non-payment.

===

Sure I can. Don’t be daft.

You have Big guy A. He doesn’t get all his money, but you promise him future projects.

Ok, so, he cuts the people below him.

Who cuts the people below him.

down the chain.

====

Your simplified model is assuming ALL of his money came from screwing over ONLY small contractors.

He’s got multiple streams of income and debt.

===

If you can’t see how trickle down works (positive and negative) vs “shoe to shoe”.

Also, when you hire somebody, you’re responsible. Sorry.

====

Supply and distribution is different from:

A project.
This project contains many subprojects.
These subproects contain other subprojects.
until you read a point where SOMEBODY’S actually doing something.

===

Wow, you live in a world of magic money.

===

You –> Govt is bottom top.

Trump –> contractors is top down.

====

It’s more like “rob peter to pay paul” down the line. Nobody ends up with zero but only one guy ends up with it all and that’s not even his as it’s owned by the bank multiple times over.

The money just passes through his hands and he takes a little. The rest is moving debt around.

===

Clearly you haven’t worked with scammy general contractors before. I think that’s excellent and I hope you never have to.

I’m not butthurt about them. It’s just a simple fact that’s related to Donald J Trump who is running for President.

You on the other hand, appear butthurt at ANY suggestion that the man was anything but a marvelous businessman who just maybe forgot to pay a bill or two.

===

“somebody would stop it”, lol. No.

When you get screwed, you don’t brag about it. You eat it if you can and move on with your life. It’s just business.

I happened to know a few complainers who were pissed. Drunk. At the bar. Not my scene really. THEY were butthurt.

But most people who get screwed just shut up and take it. Nature of business. You learn from your mistakes and move on.

===

Trump may win. If so, American will learn from her mistake and move on after 4 years. No big deal.

====

Maybe they would. Or, maybe the higher up company would get other forms of compensation such as perks in lieu of full payment. [“fixing the butthurt of the head guy you hired”].

He accepts, takes his lumps, pushes the pain down the line ’cause he got a year’s supply of Trump Steaks for free.

Business. Believe what you want, but it’s not what you see on paper.

===

“Hey, take this one hit ok, and you’ll get backstage at the beauty agency and a pick of any girl you like”.

Stuff like that. Not saying that’s how it went down, but ppl do business in NY and NJ in strange ways. It’s not as thuggy as you hear but it’s more pat on the back, “yeah can’t pay you this, but i can give you that”.

===

Whatever happened, I’m sure it wasn’t Trump’s fault in any way. He just happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time There’s absolutely no justification for anything anybody says negative about him ’cause, well, it was circumstance. Always circumstance.

That’s fine. I don’t know or care what Clinton’s campaign says. I don’t research it, don’t care. I just know what I know.

===

You can stereotype NJ/NY builders (like Trump) as ripoffs if you like. I’ll stereotype NJ/NY builders (like Trump) as ripoffs if I like.

Seems like we’re on the same page.

====

He’s a conman. Man, if you can’t see that, I’m sorry ’cause you’re being screwed by being taken in.

I grew up around them. It’s part of the NJ skepticism. He’s just another one of them.

I don’t know who I’m voting for yet. But “What have I got to lose? I’ll vote Trump, fuck it all anyway Go Trump!” – isn’t exactly the strongest position.

To me, Trump’s a typical NY/NJ conman used car salesman, ripoff gen contractor, and Clinton’s a typical politician, nobody special, nothing much different.

If I could find some 1980s TV commercials from used car salesman you’d see Trump with a different face selling a different product.

He’s got strong points: He’s really good at the three-part sales pitch. To people not used to it, it seems impressive and full of meaning. But it’s hollow once you know the trick. He’s good at it.

====

His phrase “Yuge” – he actually got that from a used car salesman. Kia dealer. I know this because he sold Kias in the NY/NJ area and I’d see his commercials on TV.

“They’re HUGE, Caroline, YUGGGGGE-ah!” was his trademark.

I thought I escaped him. Then, five years ago, he moved down HERE, a few towns away to Cape Coral. He hasn’t changed.

THEN a year ago, I heard Trump saying, “YUGE!’ and I though, oh fuck, I can’t escape that guy… now Trump’s saying it.

====

I have no idea. But Trump says it the same way as a famous used car dealer’s been saying it for decades.

Maybe its anecdotal. Maybe Eric Sprott got it from that car dealer. Maybe he didn’t. But it’s distinctive. I’m sure you can find evidence that can put pinholes in my case, but I’m resting it.

Should it matter if he got it from a used car dealer? I just find it amusing.

====

and btw – the anti-pc thing? It’s typical for Republican candidates to say that. First election?

It’s not typical for someone to try it at the Presidential level but Republicans nationwide (also used by Democrats at times) – is this, “We’re outsiders. We’re not taken in by the system. We’re game-changers”. Nothing new with Trump.

===

Sure they have. Local elections nationwide. I’ve seen used in the past here in FL in local yokal republicans. It’s popular rhetoric. Trump’s espousing a VERY popular rhetoric.

===

It never does. There’s always been far more people who hate PC (not even knowing what it really means ’cause most people, including those who think they are, get it wrong) than those who understand it.

I could tell the story of PC but it’s long and boring and another anecdote.

Here’s my thing about Trump: Let’s say he’s an outsider. Let’s say he really doesn’t know people in politics. Let’s say Scott Baio is set to be on his cabinet or something.

Ok. That’s fine. Now… how’s he going to accomplish anything again?

He’s a Lame Duck President. Maybe that’s what we need now: A president who can accomplish nothing.

She’s got connections. Gets shit done. Is that better? Well, it’s typical for a politician to know people to make things happen. She’s just a typical politician who gets stuff done like any one of them would have ’cause they know how things operate.

====

Replace her with any other politician and you’ll get similar results. With Trump? I expect a couple of executive orders to come out from him and they get stopped in their tracks or slowed down to a crawl.

Then, it’s Congress’ fault. Then, it’s the SCOTUS fault. Then… it’s somebody else’s fault.

===

I’ve read his thing. Yeah, Scott Adam’s a Trumpet but that’s no surprise there.

I remember Reagan. I was 8 when he was elected. I remember there was a “dark horse” guy that seemed fascinating because this “John Anderson” guy was gonna ruin everything. [yeah I watched the news at 8 a little].

He was “my president” in that he was in my time. [I kinda remember Carter – I did a book report about Peanut farming and Carter in the 3rd grade].

Anyway, Reagan was my President. Didn’t agree with him a lot of the time as a kid but he was entertaining. Would Trump be entertaining as president? Sure. Clinton would be boring. Obama was boring. I hardly noticed him there. Same with Bush. Boring. Most of them are to me.

===

I’ve never been rich. Had one good Systems analyst job once but I got no diploma. Just a high school grad making due from a few smart decisions I made 15-16 years ago and a few since.

Would she be a train wreck? Nah. You know what she’d be? Fodder. Fodder for talk radio. Great for the media ’cause they could complain about her ALL of the time. Same with Trump except people will get bored with Trump after a while. He’s always the same. She’s unpredictable and her every move will be scrutinized and picked apart.

With Trump, you know EXACTLY what he’s thinking at any given moment. With her? You don’t know. Trump will get dull once his lack of executive powers are exposed.

But he’s entertaining during this campaign. Got people interested in politics who don’t usually give a fuck.

I’m glad for that. I almost always vote ’cause I believe it’s a civic duty but I don’t generally care much about politics. I expect them to be crooks and thieves.

====

If I endorsed Trump, I’d be doing exactly the same thing. In the end, ultimately? he’s just another politician, except he’s got no useful connections with anybody.

===

In ’92 and ’96 I voted for H. Ross Periot. I believed a businessman would do BETTER as President. Also, I hate the two party system. Always did.

Now? I know better. System’s far more powerful than anybody who sits there. and that’s a good thing.

===

You can have Trump. Doesn’t matter ultimately to me. To me, it’d be like I was 11 years old and he’s the embarassing drunken uncle who hits on all of my female friends.

[I didn’t have one, just a stereotype]

====

Well, the “big liar” scenario means that the Senate, who apparently can’t even veto a bill properly, basically runs the show.

I used to think a President was as good as his cabinet and I still do to some degree.

Now after 9/11, I didn’t care much for Bush but I admired his cabinet. Different politics than *I* like, but we were stuck in a big mess we couldn’t get out of.

So, I voted for Bush in ’04 ’cause I figured his cabinet had a plan they were advising the President on.

A month later? He fires his entire cabinet and same President+ NEW cabinet ends up putting forward the process of getting troops out. Makes a plan, takes a while to get started.

So, sudden change in mid-stream even within the same Presidency.

So, who will be in Trump’s cabinet? More to the point, who will he listen to?

Let’s say he’s big cheese “I got dis and don’t need no one else ’cause instinct”? Well, he gets a medical issue (he’s 70 and male), dies in office, what then?

Not very smart.

But, thankfully that’s why we have the systems we do. A lame duck presidency, even if it’s congress that’s running the show, will still function ‘fine’.

Pence, who understands state politics at least, might fare ok but does he understand how to work Congress? Deal with compromise?

If you can’t deal with compromise, you’re not a good or effective leader.

Of course then there’s Putin. Putin has the best public relations campaign of ANY media agency in the history of modern times. So, he looks like Alpha dog in charge. But what happens within? We don’t know. A Putin can’t happen in US politics.

As far as Trump’s assets, he and his family loses them the moment he steps into office. They’re in a blind trust to avoid conflicts of interest.

What will he do without being able to do things that assist his personal bottom line? I dunno.

===

A “Let’s try him, ABC!” [anybody but clinton] isn’t sane but I hear a lot of ppl saying it.

====

 

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